In the wake of the 2024 U.S. elections, speculation over Donald Trump’s return to office has been sky-high, especially in the Global South. Trump’s first term saw an America-first approach, characterized by a recalibration of foreign aid, a trade-focused agenda, and often contentious rhetoric towards Africa. Now that he returns to the White House after a momentous victory, the implications for the African continent would be complex and multifaceted, affecting areas such as economic partnerships, security collaboration, and diplomatic relations.
Economic Partnerships and Trade
Under Trump’s first presidency, the economic ties between the U.S. and Africa were marked by a reduction in multilateral aid and a pivot towards bilateral trade. Trump’s administration was critical of China’s expansive influence on the continent, focusing on countering China’s economic footprint rather than increasing U.S. economic involvement.
A second Trump presidency might further limit multilateral trade agreements in favour of deals focused on direct U.S. economic interests, potentially sidelining African development goals in favour of mutually profitable trade relations.
Trump has historically emphasized reciprocal trade over aid, seeking to reduce Africa’s reliance on aid and encourage self-reliance through trade deals. However, this approach could mean reduced U.S. financial aid and support programs, such as those targeting health and education.
His administration previously advocated for private investment as a means of creating jobs and infrastructure on the continent, favoring African countries that demonstrated economic reform and transparency. African nations open to such models might benefit from private investment, but those heavily reliant on aid could find themselves struggling to replace lost U.S. support.
Security and Counterterrorism Collaboration
Security remains a key aspect of U.S.-Africa relations, with ongoing U.S. support for counterterrorism initiatives across regions facing violent extremism, such as the Sahel, Somalia, and Nigeria. In his first term, Trump took a limited engagement approach, focusing on strategic and cost-effective solutions, which included scaling down U.S. military presence and operations in Africa. It is not certain if Trump might stick to this same apporach in his second coming.
However, Africa’s need for security support to combat extremist groups may not align with Trump’s America-first ideology. If U.S. resources are scaled back, African nations could see a rise in influence from alternative powers like Russia and China, which are increasingly active in Africa’s security space. African governments may seek alternative security partnerships, potentially altering the continent’s geopolitical alignment and heightening competition among global powers vying for influence in the region.
Diplomatic Relations
Trump’s previous rhetoric on African nations was often criticized as dismissive, casting doubt on the sincerity of U.S. diplomatic efforts. While the Biden administration has worked to reset and strengthen U.S.-Africa diplomatic ties, Trump might disrupt this momentum in his presidency. His administration’s sharp criticisms, alongside travel restrictions on certain African countries, fueled anti-U.S. sentiments in some regions, which could resurface and even deepen under a renewed Trump presidency.
The U.S. image on the continent could be affected by how Trump approaches African immigration and foreign relations. His first term saw visa restrictions and policies that limited opportunities for Africans to work and study in the U.S. This not only discouraged mobility but also stymied the U.S.’s soft power influence, a gap that other nations, particularly China, have been quick to fill by welcoming African students, workers, and leaders. A Trump presidency might also trade agreements between the US and the African market.
Climate Policy and Environmental Concerns
Africa’s climate vulnerability is increasingly pronounced, with droughts, floods, and environmental degradation affecting millions. However, Trump has historically shown scepticism towards climate change science and withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement during his first term. While the Biden administration has since recommitted the U.S. to global climate action, Trump’s return might bring another withdrawal or a reduction in U.S. funding for climate adaptation programs that benefit African countries.
This rollback could be particularly detrimental for African nations dependent on international aid to combat the ravages of climate change on the continent. Should Trump de-prioritize climate funding, African countries may find it challenging to mobilize the resources needed to build climate resilience, especially as they contend with severe climate-related disasters.
China and Russia’s Expanding Influence
If Trump’s foreign policy maintains an America-first stance with reduced commitments to Africa, countries like China and Russia may continue to gain ground in the region. China has established itself as Africa’s largest trading partner and a key lender, while Russia has made significant inroads through security assistance and strategic partnerships. An isolated U.S. approach under Trump might lead African countries to further align with these powers, particularly in areas like infrastructure development and security where U.S. involvement wanes.
An Uncertain Future
Africa could see a mixed landscape of opportunities and challenges in Trump’s second presidency. While some African economies might benefit from a shift towards self-reliance and reduced aid dependency, others may struggle without U.S. support in critical sectors like healthcare, security, and climate resilience. The continent’s leadership will likely seek to diversify partnerships, hedging against unpredictable U.S. policies and embracing alternative allies as necessary.
Donald Trump’s potential return to the U.S. presidency in 2024 presents complex implications for Africa, affecting economic partnerships, security collaboration, diplomatic relations, and climate policy. In terms of economic ties, Trump’s emphasis on reciprocal trade over aid could lead to reduced U.S. financial support for Africa, favoring private investment and benefiting countries demonstrating economic reform. However, African nations heavily reliant on aid may struggle to replace lost support. Security remains crucial, but Trump’s America-first approach may limit U.S. involvement, potentially increasing the influence of Russia and China in Africa’s security landscape.
Diplomatically, Trump's previous rhetoric and policies, including travel restrictions, have been seen as dismissive towards Africa, potentially disrupting the strength of U.S.-Africa relations built under the Biden administration. Trump’s immigration policies could diminish U.S. influence, allowing other nations to fill the gap. Moreover, Trump's scepticism towards climate change and potential withdrawal from climate agreements might undercut Africa's climate resilience efforts, vital for combating environmental challenges. With reduced U.S. involvement, China and Russia may further expand their presence in Africa, particularly in trade and security.
Overall, Trump’s second term could bring a mixed landscape for Africa, where some nations benefit from increased trade focus, while others struggle without U.S. support in key areas. African leaders might seek to diversify partnerships to mitigate unpredictable U.S. policies, fostering relationships with alternative global powers as needed.
