Claim: An X user (formerly Twitter) shared a video showing President Tinubu urging Nigerians that fuel will be sold at N100 per liter in August.
Verdict: Misleading! Image and video forensic analysis revealed that the alleged clip was doctored and manipulated to spread a narrative.
Full Text
The strokes of information disorder manifest from various angles. They are particularly evident in politics, where political parties, candidates, and supporters disseminate all sorts of misleading information targeted at sabotaging the efforts of their opponents. Another instance is observed in conflict scenarios, where stakeholders propagate information that exacerbates the impact of war or provides further rationale for its continuation.
This trend is increasingly prevalent, exemplified by the frequent occurrences wherein prominent political figures, such as the President of Nigeria, are utilised to share obscured information.
On March 5, 2024, at approximately 9:21 pm, a user identified as @obehieguakhide shared a 12-second video depicting an individual surmised to be the President of Nigeria. The caption read: “By the end of August, fuel will be sold at N 100 per litre—Bola T, 2023.”
“I want also tell Nigerians that things are now working fine and that by August ending, fuel will be sold 100 Naira per liter,” the supposed president said in the clip.
As of April 9, 2024, the post had garnered 89,000 views, 197 comments, 659 reposts, and 84 bookmarks. The comment section of the post went wild with diverse opinions. Numerous users ridiculed the statement and dismissed it as false and fabricated, while others seemed to affirm its authenticity.
For instance, @fem_desmond remarked: “Wait, this is not AI, he really said this. This man no rate us at all.”
Another user, @AssetsOfBuj, added: “The annoying thing is how he forces the accent.”
In disbelief, @kainginodam responded: “You did not manipulate the audio well, go and try again as the lip sync is obvious, and the Hausa’s yankee accent is not the right one. Keep trying and you will eventually get there.”
DUBAWA noted the peculiar nature of the footage, which appeared markedly different from the president’s usual manner of speech. We resolved to make more inquiries.
Verification
The alleged video was analysed for traces of manipulation. The president’s lips move unnaturally compared to his usual facial and communication expressions. There also seems to be a distinct difference between speech and lip gestures. Additionally, there is a mechanical tonality to what he said in the video, which is typical of a deep fake.
Deep fakes are synthetic media produced through machine-learning algorithms, named for the deep-learning techniques employed in their creation and the fictitious scenarios they depict. The most prevalent application of this technology is face swapping, a method that superimposes an individual’s facial image onto another person’s body.
Hence, DUBAWA employed a verification tool called deepware.ai, which authenticates whether a video is a deep fake or not. The analyses indicate that the video was indeed a deep fake with a high percentage of suspicious features.
Upon further examination of the results, the tool provided a detailed percentage breakdown indicating the video’s authenticity level. The breakdown included Deepware at 57%, Saferbekov at 76%, and Ensemble at 69%. These are sub-tools employed by deepware.ai to assess the likelihood of a video being fabricated. In simpler terms, the tool suggests the alleged video to be a Deepfake. A fabricated video having the features and voice of the President.
Delving deeper into the investigation, DUBAWA utilised WeVerify, an AI forensic tool to dissect the video into keyframes and conducted an image forensic analysis. The results revealed conclusive evidence that the video had been fabricated, having features of AI elements as in the image below, lacking a clear natural human silhouette.
Multiple indicators of artificial manipulation within the video. Source: WeVerify.
Additional red flags
In matters of general concern, such as fuel price reductions, reputable news outlets typically report on any official announcements made by the president. However, all keyword searches related to claims made in the video turned up no publications or reports corroborating its content.
Currently, fuel prices in Nigeria are at their highest ever, ranging from N630 to 670. To say that the president has suddenly reduced the price by 500% is unfounded.
Conclusion
DUBAWA’s investigation reveals that the video in question is a deep fake, fabricated to disperse misleading information regarding the purported reduction in fuel prices.
The researcher produced this fact-check per the DUBAWA 2024 Kwame KariKari Fellowship, in partnership with Prime Progress, to facilitate the ethos of “ truth” in journalism and enhance media literacy in the country.
A video shared by an X user purported to show Nigerian President Tinubu declaring that fuel would be sold at N100 per liter by August. However, forensic analysis has revealed that the video was doctored. The clip was identified as a deep fake, with notable discrepancies between the spoken words and lip movements, and was confirmed using verification tools like deepware.ai and WeVerify. These findings suggested synthetic media manipulation designed to disseminate false information.
Additional investigation indicated that no reputable sources reported the fuel price drop, and current prices in Nigeria are much higher, casting further doubt on the video's authenticity. DUBAWA’s analysis conclusively debunked the video, categorizing it as misinformation intended to deceive the public about fuel pricing.
The fact-check was part of DUBAWA’s effort to promote media literacy and truthful journalism, conducted under the Kwame KariKari Fellowship in partnership with Prime Progress.
