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HIV Rates Dropping in Sub-Saharan Africa: Here’s Why

Bonface Orucho
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Africa’s prevention measures in the fight against new HIV infections are paying off, according to a new report by UN AIDS.

The report, “The Urgency of Now: AIDS at a Crossroads,” unveiled on July 22 at the 25th International AIDS Conference in Munich, highlights that sub-Saharan Africa has achieved the steepest reduction in HIV cases compared to 2010.

“Four countries (Kenya, Malawi, Nepal and Zimbabwe) have reduced their numbers of annual new HIV infections by 75% and are well on track to reach the target of reducing new HIV infections by 90% by 2030,” the authors explain.

“For the first time, the number of new HIV infections outside sub-Saharan Africa surpassed the number of new HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa,” the report reads.

New HIV infections have fallen by 39% since 2010 globally, and by 59% in eastern and southern Africa. However, the report shows that new HIV infections are on the rise in some regions, including in the Middle East and North Africa. Other regions seeing a surge in infections include Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Latin America.

While almost half of the people who acquired HIV in 2023—450000 of the global 1.3 million new cases—live in the eastern and southern African regions, the report acknowledges the fact that the two regions have achieved the steepest decline in new infections since 2010, a 56% decline.

Globally, the steepest declines in numbers of new HIV infections have been among children aged 0–14 years, a trend that is reflective of Africa, where “far fewer children aged 0–14 years are acquiring HIV.”

“This trend is due largely to achievements in eastern and southern Africa, where the annual number of children acquiring HIV fell by an estimated 73% between 2010 and 2023,” the authors highlight.

There is, however, a need to increase intervention efforts in other regions, such as western and central Africa, where progress has been slower.

Some countries on the continent are proving to be steadfast in creating a blueprint on how to effectively use public sector resources and plan to eliminate vertical infections.

Namibia, for instance, in May received a bronze tier certification from the WHO for reducing mother-to-child transmission to less than 5%. The southern African country avoided 28000 vertical transmissions in the last 20 years, leading to a 70% reduction in vertical transmissions. Botswana has also, in the past (in 2021), been lauded for being on track to eliminating mother-to-child transmission of HIV.

Besides the reduction in new transmissions, the report also underscored the success in access to treatment options for existing cases. More patients are now accessing free antiretroviral therapy offered through the public health sector.

“In 2023, almost three in four adults (73% [66–81%]) living with HIV globally had a suppressed viral load, a big improvement compared with the 40% [36–45%] in 2015,” the report explains.

This has more than halved annual AIDS-related deaths, dropping from 1.3 million in 2010 to 630,000 in 2023. In Africa, the eastern and southern African region has seen a 57% drop in the number of AIDS-related deaths between 2010 and 2023.

Other regions seeing equally commendable progress in averting deaths include the western and central African regions, where the decline reached 55% in 2023, while the Middle East and North Africa saw a 6% decline in AIDS-related infections.

Eastern Europe and central Asia witnessed a 34% rise in AIDS-related deaths over the period.

While globally the 2025 prevention target goal of having 95% of people at risk of HIV infection having access to and using effective prevention options remains out of reach, the global HIV prevention response is proceeding at an encouraging pace.

In Africa, the availability of diverse prevention methods provides unparalleled flexibility, encouraging individuals to adopt at least one form of prevention. With more options now than ever before, people can choose the method that best suits their needs, thereby enhancing overall participation in preventive measures.

Condom use remains the most effective, low-cost HIV prevention method. Household survey data suggest about 36% of adults in eastern and southern Africa and 25% in western and central Africa used a condom at last sex.

Other recent preventive options gaining ground in Africa include injectable PREP, which was rolled out in Zambia in February 2024, making it the first country on the continent to authorise its use.

Despite significant progress in preventing new HIV infections, experts are alarmed by the shrinking funding for scaling HIV prevention among the most affected populations.

The report details that in 2023, total resources available for HIV (US$19.8 billion) dropped by 5% from 2022 and were US$9.5 billion short of the amount needed by 2025 (US$29.3 billion).

According to UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima, political willingness among leaders is critical as it can “save millions of lives, prevent millions of new HIV infections, and ensure that everyone living with HIV can live healthy, full lives.”

“Whether leaders fulfill their pledge to end AIDS is a political and financial choice. The time to choose the right path is now,” said Byanyima explained during the launch of the report.

bird story agency

A new report by UN AIDS reveals that prevention measures in Africa are effectively reducing new HIV infections. The report, unveiled at the 25th International AIDS Conference, highlights sub-Saharan Africa's significant progress, with countries like Kenya, Malawi, Nepal, and Zimbabwe reducing new HIV cases by 75% and aiming for a 90% reduction by 2030.

Globally, new HIV infections have decreased by 39% since 2010, with eastern and southern Africa showing a 59% reduction. However, some regions such as the Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Latin America are experiencing increases in HIV cases.

The report indicates a steep decline in new HIV infections among children aged 0–14, primarily due to successes in eastern and southern Africa. Namibia and Botswana have made notable strides in reducing mother-to-child transmission.

In 2023, 73% of adults living with HIV globally had a suppressed viral load, significantly reducing AIDS-related deaths from 1.3 million in 2010 to 630,000 in 2023. Despite progress, there is urgent need for increased intervention efforts in regions where the fight against HIV lags behind.

Funding for HIV prevention is declining, with a 5% drop in available resources in 2023. UNAIDS emphasizes that political commitment is vital to end the AIDS epidemic, urging leaders to fulfill their pledges to save lives and prevent new infections.

While condom use remains the most effective preventive measure, new options like injectable PREP are being introduced in Africa. Despite challenges, the global HIV prevention response is advancing at an encouraging pace.

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